#london2012
Albert and team at THE ALL AROUND have crunched the numbers. They project:
1) USA
Russia
Romania
China
USA is the clear favourite to take team gold in London. They are in the top position in the three scenarios studied. They have a very balanced team with high scorers in all apparatus and great consistency. Their disadvantage is that they haven’t competed that much outside US territory (Jesolo this year), so home judging might play a big factor here. However, even if their scores are a bit lower in London, they have a big enough cushion ahead the other teams to afford not hit routines and even falls.
Among the top teams is not a surprise that Russia is the less stable. They have a range of 18 points between a hit competition and a melt down. Russia is able to challenge USA for gold, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they end up outside the podium. The injuries, inconsistency and lack of depth makes Russia a big question mark. Are they going to hit?
Ready to take the podium are Romania and China. Both teams underperformed during the early competitions of the quadrennium; but seem to be peaking at the right moment. Romania would end up in the podium in all our scenarios (2 in silver and 1 in bronze) while China only manages a bronze medal at the minimum score scenario. …
details on TAA
Brazil and France are the last two teams.
Andy Thornton projects (possible) Team Difficulty scores:
1) USA 76.7
1) CHINA 76.7
3) RUSSIA 76.1
4) ROM 74.4
Injuries may yet affect the final ranking.
If Teams risk untested Amanars in a 3-up, 3-count Team final, I’ll be surprised.
Gymnastics Coaching.com 