Most pundits feel the final decision will come down to Chicago vs Rio.
Personally, I’d be quite happy with Rio. Or Tokyo. (… or Toronto, sob.)
It should not go to Madrid. Europe hosts far too many Olympics.
But Chicago will win IF Obama goes to Copenhagen Friday, October 2nd to pitch the American bid in person. I believe his speech is already written and rehearsed. Air Force One fueled, the pilot ready.
IOC loves showmanship. Obama will steal the show. Chicago will win.
… Although IOC votes — by secret ballot over several rounds — can be highly unpredictable, Rio and Chicago look to be the main contenders. …
The decision may come down to two key issues: Will President Barack Obama go to Copenhagen to pitch Chicago’s case in person? Is the IOC ready to take a bit of a gamble on Rio and send the Olympics to South America for the first time? …
“There is sympathy of course for Rio because the games have never been in South America,” IOC executive board member Denis Oswald said. “In principle, yes, it would be nice for the universality of the games that we go to a new continent that has never organized games, but only if we are confident that all the technical and other requirements are met.”
Rio has bid before, but failed to make the list of finalists for the 2004 and 2012 Olympics. Another South American city — Buenos Aires, Argentina — fell short in the vote for 2004, as did a bid from Cape Town, South Africa.
But this time, Rio has made a convincing case for taking the Olympics to a new frontier. …
read more – ESPN – Close race to host 2016 Olympics nears finish
The best analysis I’ve seen is from Alan Abrahamson:
Gymnastics Coaching.com 