Polished Gymnastics 101 is a superbly astute fan blog. Here is their prediction for the AA Olympic medalists:
Gold: Nastia Liukin (USA)
Silver: Yang Yilin (China)
Bronze: Shawn Johnson (USA)
Most pundits (including this one) are naming Shawn the odds on favourite.
Why Nastia? …
Many of you are likely dumbfounded by my prediction to keep Nastia Liukin as the Olympic AA gold winner. Shawn obviously seems to be the more likely pick of her consistency, difficulty, and execution. While Liukin is comparatively less consistent than Johnson, I think she is going to get it together one of these days and it could very well be the day of the Olympic AA final. The pressure on Johnson will be far more immense than that of Liukin, as Johnson’s wins at Nationals, Olympic Trials, and the Karolyi camp have looked to downplay a Johnson vs. Liukin showdown that the media was making a big deal out of in the past.
As for Shawn’s Amanar, the code states that the feet are the do or die factor when it comes to crediting the full rotation of the twists, and Shawn’s feet have been short of the complete 2.5 twists throughout Nationals and Olympic Trials. Granted, she isn’t that short of getting the full rotation on vault, but the judges at nationals and trials were USAG judges and would not have devalued the vault if their life depended on it. …
So the fact that one can just say Shawn’s Amanar (and whip+triple full for that matter, though at Trials it was much improved from Nationals) will get credited at the Olympics because it got credited at Nationals and Olympic Trials is not a reliable statement. The reason I am still skeptical for Shawn to win is because she is playing fire with a lot more elements (A-score wise) than Nastia is, though with that said Nastia’s UB routine is a routine many will be nervous when watching because of its many potential problems.
…
All of these potential downgrades and inconsistency could pave the way for Yang Yilin, who looks to be pretty consistent while not gambling with the credit on a lot of her skills. However, I will still predict Nastia Liukin to win. It may not seem all that logical, but I am going to trust my first instinct. And we all should know by now how unpredictable the Olympics can be.
It’s well worth reading the entire detailed post: Olympic AA Final Outlook Part 2-UPDATED – Polished Gymnastics 101
Nastia Liukin performs on the balance beam during the women’s second day of competition at the U.S. Olympic gymnastics trials, Sunday, June 22, 2008, in Philadelphia.
(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson) – ESPN
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