An important sub-plot of Covergirl this weekend. Is the USA finally going to have some depth on their weakest apparatus, Bars?
Gabrielle Douglas on … bars during podium training at the 2011 CoverGirl Classic.
If so, I’m thinking to change my prediction that Russia will win Olympics 2012. The Red, White and Blue would be near impossible to beat if they are somewhat competitive with Russia and China on Bars.
Watch more video of CoverGirl Classic 2011 on gymnastike.org
It was Hideo Mizoguchi who first pointed out to me that the USA will eventually be the dominant sports nation.
Why?
Because the USA has the most genetic diversity. Mizo postulated that over time more unique talents will emerge from that national gene pool than any other.
… Leave a comment if you have a strong opinion on that theory, pro or con.
16 comments ↓
Agree. Just for Worlds, and eventually the Olympics, the field is so deep right now and many are unfortunately going to be left behind… Wieber, Bross, Sacramone, Raisman, Douglas, the Caquattos, Li, Johnson, Memmel, Maroney… and eventually Ross who will a Senior come 2012.
All have a chance at Worlds and the OG.
“The Red, White and Blue would be near impossible to beat if they are somewhat competitive with Russia and China on Bars.”
That’s a funny way to put it since those are Russia’s colors too.
“Because the USA has the most genetic diversity. Mizo postulated that over time more unique talents will emerge from that national gene pool than any other.”
The US has genetic diversity right now. What they don’t have in general is good coaching education for all sports. Many coaches are not bringing their athletes to full potential because they don’t know how.
Eventually? The US women just essentially tied for the World Cup in soccer, a sport the world cares about but Americans are still less interested in than hockey.
I guess I don’t know how much more one needs to do to be “dominant,” but as far as I am concerned, the US is never an underdog.
And what scientific training does Hideo Mizoguchi have? I suspect that answer is zero.
I will agree with one point made by Sher, the lack of coaching education in the USA. I am astonished to see such dismal knowledge in the sport science area. Add that to arrogant coaches who are YouTube educated & you have some pretty sad training situations. There is so much talent down here, but sadly a system that is about making money prevails, penalizing those kids with substandard training.
Russia has better trained coaches. That’s one reason why the US doesn’t stand a chance against the Russians in 2012. Add to that the certainty that most of those bars girls (with the exception of Anna Li and a few others) will be broken, and you can forget a US Team Gold in 2012. I suspect it’ll end up like 2010 Rotterdam Worlds.
The world only really cares about men’s soccer.
And I think that at the moment, nurture is more defining for a country’s succes in gymnastics than nature. And I think this will continue to be so for quite a while.
I can’t believe you say such awful things. Don’t we regularly see Samoans winning the Boston Marathon and Kenyans playing nose tackle in the NFL? All that matters is practicing 10,000 hours.
That bar set was a legit 15.5 range routine.
The theory itself is valid…. But Brazil for example has diversity and will never dominate the sports scene. What the US has is MONEY. Period.
Russia always had trained coaches who are now re-united to make a difference. In the past many of them moved to…. U.S!! pursuing a more rewarded career (read: money)
If Russia continues investing in gymnastics like they have been on the past years or so, the U.S don’t stand a CHANCE!
But if the situation up there and the money flux starts to drop, then we might have another 1996-like Olympics for US.
@Marina-since the Olympics will be in London, I doubt it’ll be a 1996 style Olympics for the US. Russia’s momentum is just too strong for the US to resist, especially since the Russian government is now investing a LOT of money in the sport-all you have to do is look at how Round Lake has been completely re-done. If Putin has his way, Russia will be winning gymnastics gold medals for quite awhile. The only thing I’m not sure of is if it’ll be a Soviet-style dominance.
Genetic diversity helps. But the US is hardly the only country with genetic diversity. The Russians have some genetic diversity, given just how big their country is. And well if you have a sport where for example some body types are going to do better than others. The countries that have a lot of people with that body type, will still have more to choose from. The US dominated ladies figure skating along time, and a lot of the top US ladies were Asian Americans. But now the sport is becoming very popular in Asia, and now being dominated by Asians from Asia. Although ironically a lot of people think the next big group is the Russian juniors..
Cultural plays a role too. For example ballet is HUGE in Russia. And in a lot of ways the Russians took their ballet back ground and applied it into sports like gymnastics. And with “pairs/dance” figure skating. And well can you really say in both sports that that ballet/dance training doesn’t show make a difference. Because it absolutely does. And its one of those things were a person who trained this from the very start will have it much easier than someone whose trying to catch onto these things 10/15 years later.
Also as well funding matters. I’m not sure the Russians will in 2012, although I think they still could. {It depends on the Russian vaulters and how high Beam scores everyone has.) But in general I think they may need more time to build up a system.
I must say that since every nation has some genetic diversity. A nation with a lot of people that also funds people based on talent, not their money. And makes an effort to find body types that fit certain sports, will be the ones that eventually rule.
[Quote]on 07.23.11 at 8:18 am
Eventually? The US women just essentially tied for the World Cup in soccer, a sport the world cares about but Americans are still less interested in than hockey.
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The world only cares about men’s soccer. Women’s soccer is woefully underfunded in plenty places in the world. Read up about Marta (the best female soccer player in the world)’s story. The US is actually way better funded and organized than most. We have an excellent NCAA system.
The world cares about mens soccer, and well we don’t do so well there. Other countries, much smaller countries kick are butt all the time.
And the US women didn’t “tie” in the World Soccer. If you want to argue that’s a tie, than I must point out to you that its incredibly unfair to the Brazilian ladies, who the US only managed to beat in shootout, to get to the Semi finals. The Japanese didn’t need a shoot out to get in the final.
The Japanese women won fair and square.
I assume he means that genetic diversity will help the US in all sports, not just gymnastics since for some other sports genetics is much more important than in gymnastics. Eg athletics, swimming, cycling. In fact, genetics has only a ‘medium’ impact on gymnastics in comparison since gymnasts who are of short or average height can all compete and it is only people who are taller than average than are disadvantaged, whereas in sports like athletics you may as well not even try unless you have right genetics.
However, much more important than genetics in many sports is the level of coaching and having the right pathways for athletes to progress through to the elite ranks. Many other countries have a high level of genetic diversity, but they don’t have the coaching or pathways. Add in the fact that the US has a much larger talent pool than many other countries and these create the reasons why the US is one of the top sporting nations.
Also, in my opinion the US has already peaked in terms of sporting dominance. Many other countries are beginning to invest more in sport and will become more competitive. 2008 was the first time since the break up of the Soviet Union that US has not won the medal count at the Olympics. Alsom The current debt problems of the US are only just beginning and this will probably limit the ability of the US to invest in sport in the future so they won’t be able to dominate in sport like they have in the last 15 years. Of course, they will still be competitive and will probably be in the top 5 in olympic medal tallys for many Olympics to come. But they won’t be ‘dominant’.
ITA, Bob. Add the current situation in Russia, where they have lots of money to invest in sport from oil and gas, and you’ll see the difference in 2012 and 2016. I suspect the US will win Worlds and the Russians will win Olympics.
“2008 was the first time since the break up of the Soviet Union that US has not won the medal count at the Olympics. ”
You mean they didn’t win the “gold” medal count. If you’re just going to say medal count, they actually did still win the most total medals, so…
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