medstudent24 started another great thread on IG forum:
… I ran the numbers to see what translates into more medals, a high start value, or a high execution score…
I looked at every World Championships since 2006 and the Oympics. The results are:
Probability that the gymnast with the highest SV will win Gold: 61.2%
Probability that the gymnast with the highest Execution score will win Gold: 54%Probability that the highest SV will medal (place in the top 3): 68%
Probability that the highest E score will medal: 60%
Essentially, having a high SV is more valuable than having a high E score. This is really not that surprising, but once you break it down for each event, something interesting happens:
On FX- Highest SV means Gold 74.8% of the time
On BB- Highest SV means Gold 45% of the time
On UB- Highest SV means Gold 51% of the time
On VT- Highest SV means Gold 74% of the tie.Soooo having a high SV will serve you well on VT and FX, but no so much on BB and UB. The odds seem to be against you the most on BB, where a high enough E score is needed to come out on top.
Note- Several times, the gymnast with the highest SV failed to medal because of a fall. If those cases were not accounted for, the probabilities would rise to around 95%
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So, every time FIG tells us that execution is as important as difficulty, let’s quote this stat.
… Admittedly the sample size is very small. But intuitively I believe it’s correct.
Obviously we want the gymnast to win who has great execution … and the highest start value.
6 comments ↓
I’d like to see similar stats for MAG, I don’t think its entirely as cut and dried as that.
I don’t buy it. Nastia had slightly lower start values and still got the benefit from the judges on her execution and she won. This code sucks and it rewarded a gymnast that doesn’t have good form for using no back tumbling and code %%%%%%%%
I like this, it does point to interesting conversation gives food for thought. I would agree that intuitively all this rings true.
everybody here knows that i think the FIG is FUBAR, but…..this is some (bloggers data, NOT FIG) e-x-t-re-m-e-ly interesting info…….
agree w/ Darius 1000% (yes, i understand statistically that’s an impossible number) that it would be great to have MAG numbers………
as in much of life, what’s the most important thing at a given moment in time is: “it depends”
Nastia actually fits perfectly into the model. She has lower start values and won beam in 2007 and silver in 2008 (the apparatus where E-score matters least). She got three silvers from 2006-2008 on uneven bars with one of the highest E-scores. Sounds to me like you’re just another Nastia-hater using any excuse to criticize
[...] the difficulty score will decide the medals in [...]
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