can the US Men win the Olympics?

beijing_small.gifOhio State coach Miles Avery:

“We’re going to win,” Avery insists. “That’s why we’re going. We want to win. We don’t want to finish third, or second.”

AVERY: U.S. TEAM IS IN IT, TO WIN IT – Inside Gymnastics

Everyone thinks China is going to run away with it, but everyone thought that in ’04 [too]. …

I do think the USA does have an outside chance of winning the Olympics. They certainly will make the Team Final (top 8 of 12 teams). At that point any team that hits 18 of 18 routines has a chance.

We will know better after this weekend’s VISA Championships and first trial in Houston.

M-Hamm.jpg
source – Getty Images – M. Hamm’s comeback – NBC Olympics

Fans are hopeful Morgan Hamm looks good. The team could really use him in Beijing.

Shannon Miller poses the most important question for Olympic Team selectors:

“Should the men focus on forming a team that will be sure to qualify to the finals or focus on putting together a team that will excel once in the finals?”

These could be two completely different teams.

In the qualifying round it’s a 6-5-4 format. Six men on a team, 5 men compete on each event and 4 scores count. In the final round it’s a 3 up 3 count format. Three athletes compete on each event, all scores count. For the qualifying round you would likely need athletes that can do more events, thus more all-arounders. This would mean the less events you compete (no matter how good), the worse your chances of making the team. However, if you want to focus on the final round and assume you’ll make it there, you would need only 3 men on each event that can throw huge scores. This means a ringman like Kevin Tan or a specialist like Sean Golden may have a much better chance to make the team.

From the Podium

If they are in it to win it, the USA must choose the best team 3 up 3 count for team finals.

That’s a no brainer.

China will do exactly the same thing. Team preliminaries will be low priority.

This is NOT the case for every nation, however. Canada, for example, will likely send their best apparatus specialists as opposed to those who would contribute to the highest possible team score. Canada does not have a chance for a team medal. But could certainly medal on an apparatus as they did in 2004 Athens.

9 comments ↓

#1 shergymrag on 05.19.08 at 6:12 am

Well, an average of 15.72 on all events in team finals would’ve beaten China in Stuttgart. That’s three guys doing three events each. If each guy did a fourth event in qualification they’d have had to get that 15.72 average on their best three events and a 13.5 average on their fourth event to to match their fourth place qualifying spot. They could still select three AAs and still use this strategy with no problem. They should probably just go with two AAs though if they really want to concentrate on doing the absolute best they can in team final.

#2 coach Rick on 05.19.08 at 6:58 am

Right. Two from one nation can qualify for AA Finals. That’s perhaps the “easiest” medal right now.

The USA should choose 2 All-Arounders, but not three.

#3 Rec Coach on 05.19.08 at 10:21 am

“In the qualifying round it’s a 6-5-4 format. Six men on a team, 5 men compete on each event and 4 scores count. In the final round it’s a 3 up 3 count format. ”

Is that the same for women too?

#4 shergymrag on 05.19.08 at 11:07 am

Yes, it’s the same for women.

#5 TCO on 05.19.08 at 4:08 pm

We go for the team score. It’s a no-brainer. We may not be China, but we are deep and a large country. And have the history of team work from NCAAs. We are in this thing. We go 100% for team. Apparatus finals is que sera sera.

#6 david on 05.19.08 at 7:12 pm

Hate to say it, but it’s a little delusional to think that the US can beat China in men’s tean final. China can have 4 or 5 falls, yet still score higher than the US. Seriously, look at their lineup – Yang Wei, Li Xiaopeng, Xiao Qin, Chen Yibin, Zou Kai, and Huang Xu, it is unbeatable.

#7 david on 05.19.08 at 9:13 pm

China has potentials to get 16+ scores in 11 out of 18 routines.

FX: Zou Kai
VT: Li Xiaopeng, Yang Wei, Chen Yibing
PH: Xiao Qin
SR: Chen Yibing, Yang Wei
PB: Li Xiaopeng, Huang Xu, Yang Wei
HB: Zou Kai

I don’t know how they can lose to anyone at this point?

#8 coach Rick on 05.19.08 at 9:56 pm

David is right.

It would take a ZERO on one routine for China to lose.

#9 TCO on 05.21.08 at 5:47 pm

They are commies. We are the home of the free and the brave. We will crush them.

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